2006 Seasonal Forecast

2006 Forecasts	Forecast Date	Named Storms (Avg. 9.6)	Hurricanes (Avg.5.9)	Cat. 3-5 Hurricanes (Avg. 2.3)	Indices
CSU (Gray)	April 4 Dec 6	17 17	9 9	5 5	195 195
NOAA					
TSR (Saunders)	April 4 Mar 6 Feb 6 Jan 4 Dec 6	15.4 (±3.9) 14.6 (±4.1) 16.4 (±4.5) 16.2 (±4.3) 15.7 (±4.5)	8.2 (±2.4) 7.8 (±2.6) 9.1 (±2.9) 8.8 (±2.8) 8.5 (±2.8)	3.8 (±1.7) 3.5 (±1.7) 4.1 (±1.7) 4.0 (±1.8) 3.9 (±1.8)	152 (±46) 144 (±47) 172 (±53) 170 (±59) 160 (±60)

YEAR	NTC	ACE
1995	225	228
1996	195	166
1997	54	40
1998	173	182
1999	193	177
2000	134	116
2001	142	106
2002	80	66
2003	173	175
2004	229	225
2005	263	250
CSU Index…

NTC = Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

It is a measure of overall activity based on the terms: # named storms, # hurricanes,

# intense hurricanes, and the number of days with each . . . weighted evenly and

normalized to an average 50-yr value of 100.

NOAA & TSR Indices…

ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy

It is a measure of total wind energy. It is defined as the sum of the squares of

6-hr maximum sustained wind speeds for all systems while they are at least tropical

storm strength. It is based on the 30-year average value of 100.

CSU Forecast: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

TSR Forecast: http://tropicalstormrisk.com/

NOAA Forecast: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Quick Review

30 tropical depressions

27 named storms (Arlene through Zeta)

15 hurricanes: Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Irene, Katrina, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Vince, Wilma, Beta, Epsilon

7 intense hurricanes: Dennis-4, Emily-5, Katrina-5, Maria-3, Rita-5, Wilma-5, Beta-3

Records

Latest end of hurricane season: Jan 6 (previous – Jan 5 in 1954/5)

Most named storms: 27 (previous - 21 in 1933)

Most hurricanes: 15 (previous - 12 in 1969)

Most Category 5 hurricanes: 4 (previous - 2 in 1960 & 1961)

Most intense hurricanes to strike US: 4 (previous - 3 in 1893, 1909, 1933, 1954, 2004)

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity: 263 / ACE Index: 250

Most named storms before July: 5

Most major hurricanes forming in July: 2

Most named storms forming in November: 3

Most intense hurricane: Wilma – 882 mb (previous – 888 mb in Gilbert in 1988)

Greatest surge from hurricane: 28-30 ft from Katrina in Gulfport, Miss. (previous 24.6 ft - Camille 1969)

Most number of names retired from one season (Dennis – Katrina – Rita – Stan – Wilma)

Notable Facts

22 of the 27 storms that formed were the earliest date for that storm #

Total damage: $100 USD billion

2nd most major hurricanes: 7 (record – 8 in 1950)

2nd highest # storms to strike US: 7 (record – 8 in 1916, 2004)

2nd highest # hurricanes to kill 1000+ people in one year: 2 (record – 3 in 1780)

Vince – the farthest east and north that a TC has ever formed . . . and first to strike the Iberian Peninsula

Latest Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts 2003

peter j. bowyer

2006-04-03T13:46:00