Afin d'avoir une idée des demandes militaires dans le monde de demain,
l'armée américaine a publié son rapport 2010 sur le « Joint Operating
Environment ».

Le document est public et se trouve à l'hyperlien suivant:
http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf

Attardons-nous quelques instants à la section « Energy » en page 24 (page
26 dans le fichier PDF).

« To meet even the conservative growth rates posited in the economics
section, global energy production would need to rise by 1.3% per year. By
the 2030s, demand is estimated to be nearly 50% greater than today. To
meet that demand, even assuming more effective conservation measures, the
world would need to add roughly the equivalent of Saudi Arabia's current
energy production every seven years.

Absent a major increase in the relative reliance on alternative energy
sources (which would require vast insertions of capital, dramatic changes
in technology, and altered political attitudes toward nuclear energy), oil
and coal will continue to drive the energy train. By the 2030s, oil
requirements could go from 86 to 118 million barrels a day (MBD). Although
the use of coal may decline in the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD) countries, it will more than double in developing
nations. Fossil fuels will still make up 80% of the energy mix in the
2030s, with oil and gas comprising upwards of 60%. The central problem for
the coming decade will not be a lack of petroleum reserves, but rather a
shortage of drilling platforms, engineers and refining capacity. Even were
a concerted effort begun today to repair that shortage, it would be ten
years before production could catch up with expected demand. The key
determinant here would be the degree of commitment the United States and
others display in addressing the dangerous vulnerabilities the growing
energy crisis presents.

That production bottleneck apart, the potential sources of future energy
supplies nearly all present their own difficulties and vulnerabilities.
None of these provide much reason for optimism. At present, the United
States possesses approximately 250 million cars, while China with its
immensely larger population possesses only 40 million. »

Un changement de cap énergétique mondial surviendra-t-il d'ici 2030? Peu
de raisons d'être optmiste, est-il écrit.


Miguel